Three-Way Reality Check: How Sofia Verifies a Conclusion Before Believing It
The fastest way to lose money is to fall in love with the first chart you see. We use the 'Triangulation Protocol' to verify data by Time, Segment, and Cohort.
The Seductive Spike
Look at this bar chart. “Total New Users” is climbing month over month. It is a staircase to heaven.
The conclusion seems obvious: “Our marketing strategy is working. Double the budget.”
Stop. Put your hand on the mouse. Do not click “Approve.” This chart is seducing you. It shows Volume, but it hides Value. It shows the When, but it hides the Who.
The Distortion: A single chart is a keyhole view. We are peering through it, seeing a patch of blue sky, and assuming the weather is perfect everywhere. But just outside the frame, a storm might be gathering.
The Signal: To clear the distortion, we must triangulate. We must attack the data from three different directions to see if the story holds up.
View 1: The Time Slice (The Trend)
We have seen the monthly trend. Now, change the resolution. Switch the X-Axis from “Monthly” to “Weekly.”
Suddenly, the smooth staircase looks like a jagged saw. We see that all the growth happens in the first week of the month (when we send the newsletter) and then flatlines. We are not growing; we are spiking. The strategy isn’t sustainable; it is episodic.
View 2: The Segment Slice (The Composition)
Now, let us slice the bar by “Customer Type.” [TO EDITOR: Create a “Stacked Bar Chart”. The total height of the bars is growing. But the bottom section (blue, “Paid Users”) is shrinking. The top section (gray, “Free Users”) is exploding. Caption: “The Hollow Growth.”]
Come, look at the colors. The gray bar is eating the blue bar. Yes, “Total Users” is up. But “Paying Users” is down. The marketing campaign is attracting thousands of tourists, but no residents. If we had doubled the budget based on the first chart, we would have accelerated our bankruptcy.
View 3: The Cohort Slice (The Behavior)
Finally, we track the behavior. We take the users who joined in January (the “low growth” period) and compare them to the users who joined in June (the “high growth” period).
How many of them are still active after 30 days?
- January Cohort: 60% retention.
- June Cohort: 10% retention.
The verdict is in. The growth is toxic. It is low-quality, high-churn volume.
The Verdict
The first chart said “Success.” The Triangulation says “Failure.”
This is why we investigate. The raw CSV does not care about your ego. It does not care about your bonus. It only holds the truth. But you have to force it to speak.
Next time you see a chart that looks too good to be true, slice it three ways. If it survives, you have a strategy. If it breaks, you have saved yourself a fortune.
FAQs
Why isn't one chart enough?
Because one chart is one angle. A cylinder looks like a circle from the top and a square from the side. You need both views.
What are the three views?
Time (Trend), Composition (Segment), and Behavior (Cohort).
Does this take too long?
It takes 10 minutes in a Pivot Table. Recovering from a bad strategic decision takes 10 months.